CoreLogic: Annual home price growth stalls; Utah at risk for home price decline
The recent growth in nationwide home prices stalled in October, according to data released by property information, analytics and data company CoreLogic. The firm’s CoreLogic Home Price Index reported that U.S. home price growth remained almost unchanged in October from the previous month, with just an 0.02 percent increase, adding only a little to the 3.4 percent growth over the past year.
The stagnation highlights the fact that home price growth has remained relatively flat since this summer, only eking out gains in certain pockets of the country.
The Northeast has proved particularly resilient to current economic conditions despite slower job growth, elevated interest rates and ongoing affordability concerns. New Jersey, Rhode Island and New Hampshire claimed three out of the top five spots for year-over-year price gains, rising 8.1 percent, 7.5 percent and 6.3 percent, respectively. Rhode Island and New Jersey prices reached new highs in October.
Meanwhile, Washington, D.C.; Idaho; and Montana top the list in October for the states that are furthest from their price peaks. Each location was down from its former high point by 3.5 percent, 2.5 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively. However, on a year-over-year basis, Washington, D.C., prices are still up 4.7 percent. Hawaii was the only state to post an annual home price decline.
Despite the price declines seen in certain areas of the country, overall national price growth is expected to continue at a muted pace. Still, forecasts suggest that national single-family home prices will reach a new peak level in April 2025. Currently, the median sales price for all single-family homes in the U.S. is $385,000.
“Similar to much of the housing market activity, home prices continued to mostly move sideways in October,” said CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp. “A slight home price bump after a late summer decline reflects the rebound in home-buying demand resulting from a short but effective decline in mortgage rates in August. Still, as we continue to bump along during this slower time of the year for the housing market, home prices are not expected to reveal much about what’s ahead for the spring home-buying market. In the last few years though, springtime has seen home prices jump higher than before the pandemic despite elevated mortgage rates.”
On a local note, Provo/Orem and Salt Lake City were among a handful of metros flagged by CoreLogic’s Market Risk Indicator for being at risk for a market price decline. The local markets led a small group of cities with more than a 70 percent probability for decline in the next 12 months. They join Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Rowsell, Georgia; Tucson, Arizona; and Palm Bay-Titusville-Melbourne, Florida, with a very high risk of declines in home prices over the next year.