Without proper planning, the Point of the Mountain area is on a course that could prompt economic trouble for the state.
That’s a conclusion of a recent report compiled by Envision Utah and released by the Point of the Mountain Development Commission that indicates that by 2050, conditions in the area would be so severe that both companies and workers would look elsewhere.
“Utah is less attractive to high-quality employees and employers because of increased cost of living, poor air quality and lack of urban living opportunities, among other factors that many employees and employers consider when relocating,” the report said, envisioning a scenario in which the area advances on its current path without strategic planning. “Because they are unable to find enough local talent or recruit people to come to Utah, many companies choose other states or countries when expanding or relocating.”
The commission and development partner Envision Utah are working on a plan for the roughly 22,000 undeveloped acres at Point of the Mountain, including the 700-acre site of the Utah State Prison in Draper, which will become available when the prison is moved in a few years to a site near Salt Lake City International Airport. As part of Phase 2 of the process, they studied what the area would look like in 2050 without planning. Using this “baseline scenario,” Envision Utah next will prepare alternative scenarios and work to select a preferred scenario — based on feedback from stakeholders and the public in the first and second phases — sometime this winter. The third and final phase of the process, expected to take place next year, will consider how to finance the preferred scenario’s infrastructure and economic development needs.
“This (baseline) scenario is just one possibility for the future of the Point of the Mountain,” said Robert Grow, chief executive officer of Envision Utah. “We will use the baseline for comparison as we create other scenarios. With input from stakeholders and Utah residents, we will ultimately generate a robust strategy for a better future.”
The baseline scenario indicates that job growth in the area by 2050 would be “constrained because Utah’s skilled workforce is limited; the increase in Utahns who graduate with the needed skills is unable to keep up with the demand in the Point of the Mountain’s innovation cluster.” Among the assumptions used to develop the baseline scenario was one showing that Utah’s workforce in key fields such as software and programming does not grow any faster than the population expands.
“The baseline scenario illustrates the need for strategy and collaboration in developing the Point of the Mountain area,” said commission co-chair Rep. V. Lowry Snow, R-St. George. “Current trends show how important this opportunity is for securing our state’s future economic success and quality of life.”
The baseline scenario assumes that by 2050, the Point of the Mountain area will have 220,000 new residents, 180,000 new jobs and 30,000 new K-12 students. “The Point of the Mountain area is booming, attracting tremendous job and residential growth. While Utahns are experiencing substantial economic benefits, growth presents challenges,” the scenario report states.
In addition to economic and job considerations, the baseline scenario outlines the potential future effects on residential and commercial development, transportation, air quality, open space, recreation and water use.
Without strategic planning, the mix of housing in the area would change from its current level of 79 percent single-family, detached homes to 64 percent by 2050. New homes built between now and 2050 would consist of 49 percent single-family, detached homes; 38 percent multifamily and 13 percent townhomes, it said.
“Housing, jobs and retail are separated and designed primarily for driving, not for walking or biking,” it envisioned. “Large parking lots surround office and retail buildings. There are far more apartments and townhomes than today, but not as many as the market needs to match what people want and can afford between now and 2050. Housing becomes more expensive because apartments and townhomes don’t keep up with market demand.”
Redevelopment of the prison site would feature office parks, retail and housing that would be primarily auto-oriented, like Traverse Mountain and Thanksgiving Point, it said.
Transportation challenges abound in the baseline scenario. It figures that local road networks will not connect “so people must travel on arterials and larger roads to reach destinations.” A lack of funding would mean no construction of Trax lines or extensions, additional FrontRunner stops or frequency, or bus rapid-transit lines.
“Someone living near the Point of the Mountain can access 50-60 percent of Wasatch Front jobs by car within 45 minutes, or 2-12 percent of jobs by public transportation within 45 minutes, depending where that person lives,” the report states about the modeling used in the baseline scenario. “I-15, Redwood Road and the Mountain View Corridor are all congested near the county line at peak hours, making north-south travel between the counties difficult. SR-92, 2100 North, 14600 South, Porter Rockwell and other arterial roadways are congested at peak hours. East-west travel is a challenge.”
Transportation issues were the top challenge identified in the Phase 1 information-gathering part of the process. It was mentioned by both the public and stakeholders as a significant concern four to five times more often than anything else. For stakeholders, after transportation, an educated workforce was listed as the next-most-important issue for attracting and creating jobs.
Details about the commission’s Point of the Mountain development activities, including a summary of the baseline scenario, are at PointoftheMountainFuture.org.