We like to think of making decisions as a purely objective, analytical process. We imagine a yellow legal pad full of pro/con columns in neat lists of bullet points; just count which side has more entries, and the decision is made.
That might have worked in a slower world. But in a world that’s algorithmically sorting and promoting over 45,000 new social media posts per second, you’d essentially need infinite legal pads and infinite people to write on them if you planned to capture all the information that might be useful in any given moment.Standing under this ever-pouring fountain of data, you can’t press “pause” every time you need to make an important decision. In this world, leadership isn’t about having perfect information; it’s about having the courage to move forward despite the inevitable uncertainty.
It’s tempting to believe that more data will inevitably lead to better decisions, and to a point, that’s certainly true. Past that point, though, data can lead to cognitive overload and decision fatigue, leading to now-common tropes like consumers unable to choose a simple breakfast cereal in a sea of near-infinite choices. The counterintuitive truth is that sometimes, information doesn’t clarify confusion — it creates more.
This phenomenon highlights the difference between knowledge and wisdom. Knowledge is the mere accumulation of facts. Wisdom is the ability to leverage the available facts into a positive choice — and the discretion to know when more information is more likely to harm than help.
The development of that intuition comes naturally to no one; it’s a hard-won skill that can only be developed over time, through the process of making many, many decisions — and then evaluating the outcome objectively. Until a decision is made, no outcome can happen — and until an outcome is reached, it’s impossible to analyze the process that led to it.
This, the gray zone between decision and outcome, is where leaders are truly forged. So how can a young leader develop a skill set that, by definition, requires a certain amount of failure?
Developing leaders can’t merely rely on their predictive abilities; they must learn to rely on their perspective. For me, that perspective is the SHIFTS framework I use and teach.
To be clear, SHIFTS is not a process to begin when you realize it is time to make a decision. More than a method, it is a mindset — a rhythm that leaders can walk in at all times, so that the moment of decision finds them prepared.
To lead well in uncertain conditions, make these SHIFTS:
• SEE: Leaders must consciously cultivate what they see, and model that process for their team. Humans think in stories and images much more easily than they think in data. Spend time each day visualizing what success looks like — for your whole company, your particular team, your specific career. It’s helpful to keep a log of this: a journal by your favorite chair, or a mood board over your desk that can be constantly edited or supplemented as items are marked off the list, or new items emerge to catch your attention.
• HEAR: Like the things you see, be careful what you hear. Let your self-talk be positive and solution-focused. Avoid extended conversations with colleagues who dwell in cynicism, and seek out conversations with those who enjoy optimistically discussing workable options. The goal is to ensure that your subconscious mind is always circling around potential paths forward, rather than stopping at immovable roadblocks.
• INSIGHT: We think of inspiration as a lightning strike from out of the blue, but when what you see and hear is feeding your mind properly, those breakthrough moments of insight begin to occur naturally. Insight is the step that takes a leader from information to interpretation. The key question here is “Have I seen and heard enough?” This allows a leader to recognize that there is a point when accumulation of facts is detracting from the ultimate purpose: productive movement.
• FORMULATE: Formulation is simply the process of creating a plan to put insight into action. This “What comes next?” step is the natural outcome of insight’s “Oh, that might work!” Even when the picture isn’t complete, map your next steps — then confidently take the first one.
• TRANSFORM: The decisions you make in the formulation process become the action items of transformation. As you move forward, be honest with your team that every plan is a process in the middle of becoming a solution. If something isn’t working, head back to Step One and start noticing what you see as you adapt, adjust and learn. Growth is often a course correction that initially looked like a misstep.
• SUCCEED: As the SHIFTS model, coupled with your own talent and courage, leads you through the fog and into clarity, celebrate your successes. But be sure to do so by honestly taking stock of the path you traveled. Discuss missteps — even the ones that led somewhere productive — with openness and integrity. By doing this, you’re consciously, consistently modeling to your team that making difficult decisions is a more valuable skill than waiting in hopes of a sure thing. And the more times you walk successfully through the fog, the more you’ll trust your instincts in the future, because success comes from the repetition of actions that work.
Ultimately, the best leaders don’t eliminate uncertainty; they work to minimize it as much as possible, but they also accept it as part of the human condition and move forward with confidence, even when they’re not entirely sure where their feet will land. The gray zone doesn’t complicate leadership; it reveals it.
Dr. Sam Adeyemi is an internationally recognized keynote speaker, executive coach and author of “SHIFTS: 6 Steps to Transform Your Mindset and Elevate Your Leadership” (Wiley, Feb. 2025). He is CEO of Sam Adeyemi GLC Inc. and founder of Daystar Leadership Academy.