Net in-migration surge creates 1.8% population growth in Utah

Population estimates for July 1, released by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah, indicate the state added approximately 71,936 people since the 2020 census, reaching an estimated 3,343,552 people. From July 1, 2020, to July 1, 2021, the population grew by 58,729 people. This annual growth rate of 1.8 percent is the highest since 2017.

“Utah started the decade with a year of solid growth, averaging 160 new residents per day,” said Emily Harris, senior demographer at the Gardner Institute and lead author of the report. “The state also experienced the second-highest recorded net migration and the lowest natural increase since 1975. This year’s estimates indicate a slight rebound as Utahns move through a global pandemic and attempt to find a new normal.”

Key results from the report include the following:

Natural Increase. Since July 1, 2010, Utah has experienced an annual decline in natural increase due to annual births decreasing while annual deaths increase. National trends during this same period depict a declining fertility rate significantly impacted by the Great Recession. Utah’s total fertility rate (TFR) fell from 2.45 in 2010 to below replacement level (1.99 in 2019), moving from the highest TFR in the nation to the third-highest.

Net Migration. Utah’s 2021 net migration is 34,858, almost 10,000 more than last year’s estimate. This estimate is the highest net migration since 2005 and is the seventh consecutive year that net migration has been above 20,000. Net migration contributed 59 percent of Utah’s population growth over the past year, up from 49 percent of state growth the year before.

Region- and County-Level Results. Iron County had the fastest growth at 6.2 percent, followed by Tooele County (4.1 percent), Washington County (4 percent) and Utah County (2.9 percent). Utah County had the highest natural increase, net migration and population growth in the state, far exceeding Salt Lake County’s 0.8 percent growth. One-third of statewide growth between July 1, 2020, and July 1, 2021 came from Utah County residents. Salt Lake County contributed 15.9 percent of growth and Washington County was responsible for 12.5 percent of growth. Davis, Weber, Cache, Iron and Tooele counties contributed between 7.7 percent and 5.1 percent each to the state’s growth. Garfield County was the only county to lose population in 2021.

Impacts of COVID-19. Although the anticipated impacts of COVID-19 on births were not apparent in the data, the significant increase in deaths changed how the state and many counties grew. Net migration became the driver of growth statewide, increasing by 15 percent over the previous year and driving growth in three-quarters of counties. While net migration varies annually in Utah, natural increase (outside of a global pandemic) typically does not. Once COVID-19 related deaths subside, there is an expectation that natural increase will stabilize.