Brice Wallace
Salt Lake Business Journal
As with many elements in the business world, “change” can either be good for a business or industry, or it can be bad.
That’s certainly the case during the first days of the Trump administration, with some tariff implementations and threats, goals of regulatory reform, and policy ideas leaving an uncertain landscape for companies to navigate.
That conclusion was the essence of a recent webinar about the administration’s activities and their impacts on the manufacturing sector in early 2025. While easing the regulatory burden has the potential for significant benefit, trade policy could be more hurtful than helpful, and tax policy change has a “whatever we get is great” likelihood, according to Troy Keller, a partner at the Salt Lake City office of Dorsey & Whitney LLP.
“I think for the manufacturing sector, these policy changes on the whole should be good for manufacturing, but definitely with some pain points, and a lot of uncertainty to deal with in the short term,” Keller said during the webinar, presented by World Trade Center Utah, iMpact Utah and Dorsey & Whitney.
The potential for impacts on manufacturing has been difficult to assess, in part because some changes are just in the idea stage and the scope is constantly shifting.
“Things are happening fast, which is the understatement of the century. Things are happening at light speed right now in D.C. and also in other parts of the world and in Utah,” said Keller, who also serves as World Trade Center Utah’s international trade and commercial policy advisor, is a member of the Salt Lake Chamber Board of Governors, and serves on the board of directors of the Utah Aerospace and Defense Association.
Keller’s advice for businesses is to “try to stay in the eye of the hurricane and be calm.”
Likely, the most beneficial proposal relates to tax policy. While the current corporate tax rate is 21 percent, during the campaign Pres. Trump said he would like to see it down to 15 percent. Keller thinks that goal is unlikely to be met but does believe something below 21 percent could.
“That’s great for corporations. That’s extra money that could be put back into operations,” he said. “If the tax breaks all come through that we hope for, that has massively great potential for the business community. … For businesses, if some of these can be restored, it can be great.”
Actions related to the controversial cost-cutting moves by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) also could help companies because reducing the number of workers at federal agencies could mean fewer regulators keeping an eye on companies.
“Most people think of it as a cost-cutting exercise, which it clearly is,” Keller said of DOGE, “but there are also many benefits for manufacturers, mainly in the sense that enforcement is likely to slow down as a result because there are fewer regulators.”
Already, companies under investigation have seen their cases dropped or settled under the Trump administration. “I think there’s going to be this general bias, and DOGE is on the front of it, to make the world easier for businesses. That is going to be a significant benefit,” he said.
However, Keller cautioned, companies do need government services — processing of necessary permits, certain licenses and tax refunds, for example — that could be delayed because of fewer people to tackle them.
“Tariffs” is the main buzzword emanating from the administration so far, and Keller surmises that some manufacturing sectors can benefit from tariffs while others may suffer. But nearly all importers and exporters will face questions tied to supply chain disruption and uncertainty, he added.
“Our supply chains are so integrated between Mexico and Canada, I think this one is one of the potentially most significant negative things that could happen for manufacturing in the short term,” he said.
Tariffs on Chinese imports could benefit U.S. manufacturers that face competition from those imports, but manufacturers who depend on Chinese components or raw materials could face much higher prices.
Tariffs on steel and aluminum could prompt manufacturers to turn to other source materials, such as carbon fiber, but those tariffs likely will push up costs for construction and many manufacturing sectors.
The implementation of reciprocal tariffs has the potential to help U.S. exporters but could also reinforce uncertainty related to supply chains, he said.
“Depending on what comes out of this, it could be a whole new world order, right?” Keller said. “This one has the potential to really disrupt and escalate the already initiated trade wars that we were fearing and seeing.”
Ryan Barclay, managing director of sales and operations at iMpact Utah, also sees both the negative and positive possibilities stemming from tariffs.
“The negative implications are really on that supply chain, right?” he said about companies that rely on imports to meet supply chain needs. “But if I’m producing products that I’m selling overseas and I’ve been subject to unfair practices, etc., now we have a recourse that actually might alleviate things.”
“It’s an unknown and it could escalate the tit-for-tat, back-and-forth, and yet it could be a positive for some groups — though if I’ve got supply chain sourcing outside the United States, I’m thinking about this one a lot.”
Unleashing prosperity through deregulation could help businesses, but Keller noted that “as a practical matter, it’s hard to remove a regulation.”
If Congress does not remove a regulation, that task would fall to individual agencies, but their processes take a while. “Over the process of time, you may feel it, but I don’t think it’s going to have a real significant short-term impact,” he said.
With all the uncertainty, Keller suggested that companies build a process, perhaps creating a task force, to cope with the issues as they happen or in advance. He said they should ask lots of questions; think about inventory levels, liquidity, supply chain options and capital investment impacts; and closely monitor discussions about policy changes in order to stay informed and flag any issues.