ECONOMIC & PUBLIC POLICY SUMMIT
Brice Wallace
Business Journal
“Slowing but not stalling” is how the Utah Economic Council is characterizing the state’s economy heading into 2025.
Part of the recent Utah Economic Outlook & Public Policy Summit, hosted by the Salt Lake Chamber, featured the council’s “Economic Report to the Governor,” which indicated a resilient Utah economy in 2024 and predicts continued success this year.
As for 2024, Utah’s nominal GDP surpassed $300 billion for the first time. Through three quarters of 2024, the state’s real GDP growth rate led the nation at 4.6 percent. The state’s unemployment rate continued to rise from historic lows, but its 3.1 percent for 2024 remained below the national rate of 4 percent.
“Utah’s job growth rate will likely continue to slow as housing prices will likely remain high until supply constraints are significantly eased,” the council said.
In a video summarizing the report, Phil Dean, chief economist at the Kem C. Gardner Institute and co-chair of the Utah Economic Council, noted that Utah’s population grew in 2024 but job growth slowed. Inflation, he said, could move either way.
“Moving into 2025, there’s a potential for tariff increases and a still-large federal deficit, and that could put upward pressure on prices, meaning we’d have higher inflation,” Dean said. “On the flip side, we have energy prices that could be coming down, and that would put downward pressure on prices.”
“One of the major challenges we’re going to see for 2025 is our housing prices, which will continue having a dragged effect on the economy,” added Robbi Foxxe, chief economist at the Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget. “On the upside, we anticipate that we’ll have continued sustained growth in most areas. The fundamentals of our economy remain strong, and that’s good news for Utah.”
Looking back, the council said Utah’s economy “demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of national economic headwinds in 2024.”
Dean noted that Utah’s population surpassed 3.5 million with a boost of 50,000 during the year.
“This had impacts on housing markets,” he said. “Housing prices increased last year after declining the year before, and that’s definitely putting a lot of pressure on affordability. These affordability concerns are leading to slower job growth in the state.”
Foxxe said Utah entered 2024 expecting the economy to continue to normalize, with sustained but good growth. “We found that that was the case,” she said. “We had cooling in the labor market, we had moderating but still-sticky inflation, but overall better than we had expected.”
Utah’s bright spots included being recognized again as the best state in the nation by U.S. News & World Report, record-high increases in oil production, and GDP growth leading the U.S. in the first three quarters of 2024.
Dean described the national economy likewise as resilient, despite predictions that higher interest rates would force a “hard” landing. Real GDP growth in 2024 rose an estimated 2.7 percent, labor markets softened somewhat and the national unemployment rose from very low levels (3.6 percent in 2023).
The Utah Economic Council prepares the economic report in partnership with the University of Utah’s David Eccles School of Business and the Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget.
In an effort to keep Utah’s economy humming, the Salt Lake Chamber released during the summit its 2025 legislative priorities. The state’s largest business organization identified 11 focus areas for public policy this year, chief among them being affordable housing, transportation and infrastructure, and workforce development.
“As Utah continues to grow, it becomes even more imperative for us to adapt and enact changes that navigate the complexities of expansion while forging sustainable paths forward,” said Mary Catherine Perry, the chamber’s vice president of public policy and government affairs. “Legislative policies are a critical component of enabling that agility within our communities.This legislative session is a window of opportunity — a launching point where we, together, can create an elite economy that delivers prosperity for both current and future generations.”
“With all the opportunities and challenges facing Utah, it is vital that the public and private sectors come together to advance policies that will increase the quality of life in Utah and strengthen our economy,” said Derek Miller, the chamber’s president and CEO. “The guidance of the ‘Utah Rising’ plan, when supported by legislative policy, has the potential to unlock an even greater era of growth and success to make Utah a place where businesses and individuals can thrive both now and in generations to come.”
The Economic Report to the Governor is available at https://gardner.utah.edu/utah-economy/economic-report-to-the-governor/. The Salt Lake Chamber’s legislative priorities are at https://slchamber.com/advocacy/priorities/.