Job growth in the manufacturing sector over the next decade — both in relative growth and total jobs — is predicted for each state in a study by Deloitte and The Manufacturing Institute.
Utah is projected to lead the nation in relative manufacturing job growth in the current decade, according to a study from global accounting services company Deloitte and The Manufacturing Institute, the workforce development and education affiliate of the National Association of Manufacturers.
The report, published late last year, says that the Beehive State will need more than 25,000 new manufacturing workers — a 16.6 percent rise between 2024 and 2033.
The study credits Utah’s growing reputation as a hub for high-tech and clean industries, combined with a favorable regulatory environment, for the demand for manufacturing employees. The state’s largest manufacturing industries include aerospace, medical devices and electronics.
The report, “Taking Charge: Manufacturers Support Growth with Active Workforce Strategies,” placed Utah at the top in relative job growth, calculated as a percentage of current manufacturing positions, while Texas was tops in total job growth, needing 57,600 new workers. Arizona (16.2 percent) and Idaho (15 percent) followed Utah in projected relative job growth, while Georgia (36,600) and Florida (32,000) came in behind Texas in the total number of new jobs needed to fill.
The study found that the manufacturing sector has rebounded strongly from the global pandemic, driven by efforts to reshore critical industries, strengthen supply chain resilience and expand domestic employment and is positioned for further growth. However, that expansion will increase demand for skilled workers, including statisticians, data scientists, logisticians, engineers, computer and information systems managers, software developers and industrial maintenance technicians.
“Pandemic-driven shifts have already created hundreds of thousands of new jobs, and now we are seeing increased demand for digital skills that need to be met or risk further widening of the talent gap,” said Carolyn Lee, president and executive director of The Manufacturing Institute.
Yet how many jobs this resurgence will actually create remains unclear.
The Deloitte/Manufacturing Institute study projected demand for up to 3.8 million new manufacturing workers between 2024 and 2033, with roughly half of those positions at risk of going unfilled due to persistent talent shortages.
By contrast, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) forecasts a much smaller increase — just 110,000 new manufacturing jobs by 2033. Deloitte’s independent analysis of state-level projections, compiled from state labor departments, estimates a combined 10-year manufacturing employment growth of about 400,000 jobs nationally.
This wide range of estimates reflects the uncertainty surrounding the future of the sector. Job growth will likely depend on the success of federal industrial policy, including recent efforts to boost domestic production of semiconductors and energy technologies, as well as on how effectively automation and advanced technologies can bridge current workforce gaps. While manufacturing productivity has grown — real manufacturing GDP increased 45 percent since 2000 — the sector has shed over 4.5 million jobs during that time, spotlighting a growing disconnect between output and employment.
To better understand where manufacturing may contribute most to future job growth, Deloitte used ETQ, a quality management platform for the manufacturing sector, to analyze the latest workforce projections from 49 state labor departments, covering 2022-32 or 2023-33, depending on the state. The data offer a state-by-state view of projected growth in manufacturing employment relative to overall job creation.
ETQ found that projected manufacturing job growth over the next decade is not concentrated in the nation’s traditional industrial centers, but instead in the South and Mountain West. This regional shift reflects the rise of newer manufacturing hubs tied to high-tech sectors like semiconductors, electric vehicles and aerospace.
Altogether, manufacturing employment is expected to grow in 42 states and decline in seven (data for Kentucky is not available). However, in only 12 states is the percentage increase in manufacturing employment projected to outpace growth in total employment, highlighting the continued trend toward more capital- and technology-intensive production.
The study goes on to underscore the urgent need to strengthen the talent pipeline as U.S. manufacturing growth accelerates. Without action, analysts warn, a widening gap between demand and available skills could slow the sector’s momentum.
The full ETQ data summary can be accessed at https://www.etq.com/blog/states-where-manufacturing-jobs-are-projected-to-grow-the-most/.