Utah shouldn’t see stagflation in its economy this year, according to new research from National Business Capital, a Hauppauge, New York-based provider of non-bank, non-asset-backed financing for small businesses.
According to the study, Utah is third from the bottom of the 50 states in terms of danger of entering stagflation in 2025. California ranks No. 1 for the most danger of its economy seeing the effects of stagflation.
Stagflation is defined as adverse business conditions that include a mix of high inflation, weak job growth and a slowing economy. These conditions haven’t been seen in the U.S. since the 1970s but are showing up strongly in Pacific states, with the Northeast not
far behind.
Study authors said that when stagflation shows up in “blue” states, it is generally the result of higher inflation, while declining growth contributes to the condition in “red” states.
The study reveals Americans are beginning to feel the squeeze. More than one in three households across the U.S. say they struggle to pay bills. Kentucky households report a staggering 46 percent in that situation.
Blue states dominate the 10 most at-risk list due to high housing and energy costs, while the few red states with some level of danger face greater financial stress from slower GDP growth, lower productivity and thinner paychecks.
California is the most in danger of stagflation due to high housing costs, steep utility bills and high underemployment. Connecticut ranked second for similar reasons and Kentucky ranked third for weak GDP growth and low salaries.
On National Business Capita’s stagflation scorecard, California scored 69 out of 100 while Utah came in at 37.8. Only West Virginia (36.3) and Montana (35.1) scored better than the
Beehive State.
“Let’s be clear: The economy can go in any direction from here,” said Joe Camberato, CEO of National Business Capital. ‘However, this report shows if stagflation hits, the rest of 2025 could look very bleak.”