Short-term planning projections released recently by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah indicate Utah will grow from 3.5 million to 4 million residents between 2024 and 2033, an average annual growth rate of 1.5 percent.
The institute also projects that employment will grow from 2.5 million jobs in 2024 to 2.8 million in 2033 and households are projected to grow more rapidly at 2.4 percent annually. These short-term demographic and economic planning projections inform decision-making at the state and county levels for a 10-year planning horizon.
“The short-term projections indicate continued statewide population growth driven by a nearly 50/50 split between natural increase and net migration out to 2033. Continued economic growth largely drives this migration of new residents to Utah,” said Mallory Bateman, director of demographic research at the Gardner Institute. “A combination of historical data, trends, and local expert knowledge inform our baseline projection scenario.”
The key findings from the report include the following:
Population. Average annual growth rates are projected around 1.5 percent. This translates into 500,000 new Utahns by 2033 for a total population of over 4 million, largely driven by Utah’s robust economy.
Employment. Utah’s economy is projected to add 330,000 jobs by 2033, a 13.4 percent increase from an estimated 2.47 million jobs in 2024. In terms of industries, professional and technical services is projected to lead the way, adding 51,000 jobs by 2034. Other high-growth industries include health care (41,000), construction (40,000), finance and insurance (38,000), and administrative services (35,000).
Households. Households are projected to grow 2.4 percent annually over the decade, from nearly 1.2 million to over 1.4 million (2024-33).
Age Structure. Utah’s population is rapidly aging, as evidenced by an increasing adult population and a declining youth population. Median age is projected to increase by 2.5 years over the next decade (32.7 to 35.2), reflecting this demographic shift.
Utah’s seven most populated counties in 2023 were Salt Lake, Utah, Davis, Weber, Washington, Cache and Tooele. That order is not projected to change by 2033. However, the order of growth for those counties differs. Utah County is projected to receive the most new residents (164,000), followed by Salt Lake (125,000), Washington (63,000), Davis (43,000), Weber (27,000), Cache (22,000) and Tooele (20,000). Tooele County is projected to reach 100,000 residents by 2033.
The full report is available through the Gardner Institute website.