Utah will have a population increase equal to the total number of people in today’s Idaho over the next four decades. That’s the conclusion of long-term planning projections released recently by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah.
The new study said the state’s population will increase from its current nearly 3.6 million residents to 5.6 million, an increase of 2 million people, by 2065.
The projections release follows a 15-month development process and review by several state agencies and stakeholders.
“Utah’s growth over the next 40 years is characterized by record levels of net in-migration, declining natural change (births minus deaths), an aging population and continuing urbanization,” said Mallory Bateman, director of demographic research at the Gardner Institute. “The Utah economy plays a vital role, with the health care, professional services, finance and construction industries leading growth through 2065. By the end of the planning horizon, Utah’s population will be larger, older and more urban, with a service-oriented economy that remains well-diversified.”
Wasatch County will lead the state in the average annual rate of population change over the next four decades with a 1.9 percent growth rate, according to the projection. Utah County (1.7 percent), Washington County (1.5 percent), Tooele County (1.5 percent), Morgan County (1.5 percent) and Iron County (1.4 percent) will follow closely behind.
Continued employment growth and industry diversification will result in the addition of 1.2 million jobs over the projection period. Industries with the largest increases will be health care and social assistance; professional, scientific and technical services; and finance and insurance.
Study authors said that, except for eight years in the 2030s, net migration will drive population growth statewide. Economic growth, combined with declining fertility and an aging population, will drive this trend.
Statewide, projected population growth coincides with substantial household growth, from 1.2 million in 2025 to 2.3 million in 2065. Meanwhile, decreasing household sizes driven by an aging population will continue, with a typical Utah household decreasing from nearly 3 people in 2025 to 2.3 in 2065.
Utah’s median age will increase substantially in 40 years, from 32.8 in 2025 to 45.3 in 2065, the result of both declining fertility rates and an aging population. The population age 65 and over will increase from one-in-eight residents to nearly one-in-four Utahns by 2065, while the number of centenarians (Utahns over the age of 100) will increase from an estimated 385 in 2025, to approximately 12,500 in 2065.
In 2065, Salt Lake County will still be the most populated county in the state in 2065 with a projected 1.6 million residents, with Utah County closely trailing at 1.5 million.
Salt Lake County will remain the state’s economic center, adding approximately 600,000 new jobs over the projection period.
The numbers released in the projection will be the official data by which state agencies will plan for the future, the Gardner Institute said in a statement accompanying the release.
The full report can be accessed through the Gardner Institute website at gardner.utah.edu.